(00:03) [Music] Welcome to the Dearwood Realty YouTube channel. I’m John Schink, founder and managing broker of Dearwood Realty here in St. Louis, Missouri. You know, you ever wonder what’s going on in the marketplace? Maybe you’re not actively in it, maybe you’re not looking to buy or sell right now, but you’re like, you know, I’d really like to know how things are shaking out. Well, oddly enough, the Realtors have a Realtor Confidence Index, and so they have all these questions that they ask, and then Realtors around the country go ahead and fill it out, and then we can see what they’re thinking. It’s actually kind of easy to see what’s going on, so I pay attention to it because I think that it’s helpful to what I do every day. But let’s just go in and break it down.

(00:54) So here’s the start of it, and it looks pretty right, and then it’s got all this here, and that’s great, but I just wanted to get mainly into the survey and see how it goes. So let’s just go through it. It says the Market Outlook, so the percent of respondents who expect a year-over-year increase in buyer traffic in the next three months. In September of 2022, it was 7%, and September of 2023, it’s 8%. So an increase in buyer traffic in the next 3 months, 7% and 8%. Well, that doesn’t seem kind of strange to me because in September of 2022, things were still pretty okay in the market.

(01:36) Now, let’s look at the percentage of respondents who expect a year-over-year increase in seller traffic in the next three months: 8% in 2022 and 10% in 2023. So what is that saying? It’s possibly saying that more people think that the market’s going to get unlocked. Median days on market: 21, up from 19 last year. That’s still indicating a pretty hot market. Anything over a month, to me, starts to get a little bit more interesting. They use six months for supply and demand. I think that’s a little bit too much. The percentage of property sold in less than a month: 70% in 2022 and 69% in 2023, but that’s still phenomenal.

(02:32) First-time home buyers as percent of sales: 29% in 2022 and 27% in 2023. There was a big to-do about the first-time home buyer not being the largest category of home buyers; it was actually the Boomers during the pandemic. Kind of interesting to see that it’s staying steady. Sales for non-primary residents use as a percent of sales: 15%, and now it’s up to 18%. Now that flies in the face of the idea that the rental leasing market is hurting, at least nationally, and at least according to a survey. So it’s kind of like, what do you think versus what is happening?

(03:35) Distress sales: Okay, in September 2022, it was 2%, now it’s 1%. According to the survey, but think about that. We already know that foreclosures have been increasing, so the fact that it’s below last year makes no sense. And the reason why I’m trying to bring this to you and try to show is, look, you can get your information in a number of different places, but I’m actually in the market. I actually do real estate as my primary job, and I can tell you when I see numbers that don’t jive with what I’m seeing, that’s the whole point of the channel. So if you like that sort of thing, please subscribe.

(04:14) It’s the average number of offers received on the most recent sale. The first one in September 2022 was 2.5, and in September 2023, it was 2.6. Can you believe that? The average number of offers received on the most recent sale, 2.5 versus 2.6. I mean, I haven’t seen that. It’s just not in line with reality. When the market was hot, I was getting more than 30 offers on a property, which would not be unusual, and I was pricing it correctly with what the market was saying. I wasn’t trying to gouge anybody, and people wouldn’t believe me. They’d say, “Oh, you didn’t get 30 offers, that’s not true.” Well, I really did have 30 offers, and they were legitimate offers. So it’s odd to me that it was only 2.5 and 2.6 year-over-year.

(05:22) Percent of properties sold above the list price: 28% in 2022 and 26% now. See, at least in the Midwest, at least in St. Louis, there is still strong home buying. Let’s look at some of these other stats. I think they are kind of fun. It says other market indicators: The percent of buyers who waive their inspection contingency. So, 19% in 2022 and 27% in 2023, which indicates a very, very strong market. You’re not waiving contingencies as a buyer if you think that you’ve got an advantage over the seller.

(06:00) Percent of buyers who waive the appraisal contingency: 19% in September 2022 and 24% in September of 2023. Why do you think that more people would waive the appraisal contingency now? It doesn’t make much sense. Percentage of buyers who purchase property based on virtual tour showing open house only: 8% to 9%. Let’s try and figure that out. Who purchases property based on virtual tour showing open house only? I mean, how else would you buy it? That’s how it would be. How do you answer the question? Percent of buyers who purchased a suburban, small town, rural, or resort area: 90% in 2022 and 85% in 2023. Very odd, you know, very odd question.

(07:08) Percent of sellers represented by Realtors who sold the property to an iBuyer: 1% and now it’s 2%. Now look, iBuying is pretty much dead. I mean, they still have them, but it was years in the making in the real estate business. Everyone would get asked at shareholder meetings and things of that nature, like, “When are you going to roll out your iBuying?” And people just wait a minute, “We’ll figure this out, we’ll figure this out.” Redfin, Zillow, all these guys couldn’t wait to just get out there and do iBuying, and as soon as they did, they just lost millions and millions and millions of dollars. Not many people are asking anymore, you know, “Hey, what about iBuyers?”

(08:03) Median days to close: 30. That’s totally within what I would think. Percent of contracts in the last three months that were terminated: 6% in 2022 and 6% in 2023. So, I mean, when you do get a house under contract as a buyer, you have a pretty good belief that you’re going to be able to get to the closing and actually get the house. That’s nice. Percent of contracts in the past three months that had delayed settlement: 15% and 13%. So it’s going down, which you know, is the difference between 15% and 13% that much? Not really.

(08:47) And then percent of contracts with a delayed settlement that had appraisal issues: 8% in 2022, 7% in 2023. Hard to categorize that because, like in the contract, you have an appraisal, you have an appraisal clause. Even if you didn’t do the contingency, if someone needed an appraisal, then it would have gone under the clause, and if they needed an appraisal and waived their contingency, they were still going to have to buy the house anyway. So that’s a little bit confusing as to why that was that way.

(09:21) But anyway, what did you think? Was that along the lines of what you would have perceived before the survey? I think the biggest thing is that, like, days on market are staying the same. We don’t talk about inventory in that one. Only 8% low numbers as far as Realtors believing that the market’s going to be better for sellers or for buyers, 10% for sellers. Those, to me, those aren’t very high numbers. I haven’t looked at it historically, though. It comes to my email every once in a while, and I see it. But anyway, other than that, that’s all I have for you today. Thank you for watching, thank you for listening, and I’ll catch you on the next one.