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hey I screwed that up my name is John Schink from Deerwood Realty and I wanted to go over something that I think is kind of important people keep thinking that the market the housing market is like bottoming out and from what I see we're not even close we're not even close so let's get into the article here existing home sales plunge to 13-year low as mortgage rates surge now this is going to be kind of a dense article I'm going to try and liven it up a little bit by you know stopping every once in a while and explaining things but let's get to it it says existing home sales in September fell to the lowest level since October of 2010 as limited inventory and higher mortgage rates continue to weigh on home buyers according to the National Association of Realtors so quickly what would you think if the uh limited inventory and higher mortgage rates uh weigh on home buyers wouldn't you think that there'd be less home buying yes yes I do too and that's what there was so low resale inventory and strong demand considered to drive up existing home prices marking the third consecutive month of year-over-year median sales price increases so what we're getting is um buyers that are like depressed and miserable okay not buying but there's so little inventory to buy that the prices are still going up it's already unaffordable to buy a home and now it's getting more un unaffordable as time's going on because of the lack of industry and the and basically the rate lock a Resurgence of mortgage rates is likely to contribute to a further decline in existing home sales for the in the months ahead now look at 6% I was like I don't really think this is going to go very well well we've passed 8% now on a 30-year fixed okay we're about Midway through October of 2023 so I mean it's just rough it's just rough if you're a home buyer it's bad it's bad it's it's you know you were already beaten up by the multiple offers for the last three years you're already sick of that and now you get to this point where now you can't even afford the home that you want anyway it's just been a bad run for for for buyers that's for sure total existing home sales including including single family homes town homes and Condominiums and co-ops fell 2% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.96 million in September on a year-over-year basis sales were 15.4% lower than a year ago so again we're seeing price sales drop the number of sales drop the price staying the same or or going higher I mean that's just that's just not good not good the first time buyer shell share fell to 27% in September down from 29% in August 2023 in September of 2022 the September inventory level measured increased slightly to 1.13 million units but was down 88.1% from a year ago so the amount of inventory was 1.13 million units but that was down down we need more inventory we're getting less H also firsttime home buyer share that's something kind of interesting it used to be that firsttime home buyers were the number one buyers in the marketplace right but what we're seeing is you know I'm I'm just going to say older people like Boomers people that have you know have cash stashed away are actually able to lead this home buying because they're the only ones that can afford anything uh so and why are those people well they want to be closer to their family uh they want to downsize so I mean think about that if you're downsizing uh you're in a great spot right now I mean but you're like you're one of the few people that can actually buy at the current at the current sales rate September unsold inventory sits at 3.4 month supply up from 3.3 months last month and 3.2 months reading a year ago the inventory level remains very low compared to balance market conditions which is four to five to six month supply I've always heard it be six month supply or longer and I swear in the time that I've been in business I don't think it's ever been six months and illustrates the long run need for more home construction I disagree with that I think that there are many people that have homes I think there's a huge amount of Supply out there but I think it's controlled by investors and um I think that's the main problem and you may say well if we just build more homes they'll be uh they'll be more affordable and that uh investors I guess won't buy those too I mean just think about that homes stayed on the market for an average of 21 days in September up 20 days in August and 19 days in September of 2022 and September 69% of the homes sold were on the market for less than a month now that's always been an interesting statistic for me like if I put a house on the market right now on Wednesday with no showings until Friday I'm likely to have an offer the first month or the first weekend out and if I don't in this market right now I'm going to be punished if I don't make it through if I don't get it under contract the first weekend I'm in trouble means my price is going to go down now um it normally takes 30 days to close I mean that's a reasonable number here 30 to 45 days in St Louis and um I I mean the fact that it's 21 days uh leads me to believe that there is a little bit of uh prices are a little too high for the people to buy and there will be I think that number will increase as we go on September all cash sales share was 29% of transactions up from 29 27% in August but and boy this is not edited very well 22% a year ago all cash buyers are are less affected by the changes in interest rates that's true also you have to have the cash to be able to be an allash buyer and there's only two really groups that are able to do that investors okay not unusual for an investor to buy an all cash or um like how we were talking about older older workers that have saved or they have tremendous amount of equity in their home that they're selling the sept September median sales price of all existing hom was 394,000 up 2.8% from a year ago and that's just that what I'm what I'm trying to get at there is with with the rates going up it should be affecting demand in a negative way and causing prices to go down what's that's not happening because of the supply issue which is everyone has a mortgage in the threes and they're not really wanting to sell ex and by the way as far as new if we had if we built a million new houses tomorrow it's still not going to fix this problem like you need a lot of houses and I don't and even then I don't see investors not snapping them up investors being all cash buyers existing home sales in September were mixed across the four regions and I you know look I don't even think you can I mean I understand the need for Regions but um in no way is St Louis Kansas City okay I mean it's just not but I mean and I know no and I don't I don't want to rip on Kansas City or I don't want them ripping on me but in St Louis but we're just not the same uh St Louis is not the same as Springfield Missouri St Louis is not the same as Little Rock Arkansas all these markets kind of move independently so I I do take I I don't really take too much stock in this you know in this regions however I will say that in like the Southwest like Phoenix places where I buying was just going crazy they they're seeing decreases but anyway let's let's go it says existing home sales in September were mixed across the four regions sales in the south west and Midwest decreased 1.1% 5.3% 4.1% in September while sales in the Northeast rose on a year-over-year basis all four regions continue to see a double- digigit decline in sales ranging from 11.7% in the South to 19.3% in the west so we losing home sales by number but prices are going up the pending home sales index is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts the Penning home sales index fell 7.1% from 77.3% to 71.8% in August on a year-over-year basis pending sales were 18% lower than the year ago per Nar data now so again we're getting this we're getting this um we're getting this lower transactions okay fewer transactions but more expensive which is just Bonkers right so let's just go over a couple things here well what should you do if you're currently looking to buy a home right now well um I've I've said this I I always thought this was the best strategy you should be saving your money for a down

payment I mean if houses are going to stay expensive you're you're not being hurt and having that cash for a down payment a better down payment could be more beneficial for your monthly payment on your mortgage or it could be good for in case of an emergency what if you buy a house and like we saw yesterday uh your your furnace goes out now you need to buy a furnace what if you need to buy a roof I mean it's not it's never wrong to hoard cash in my opinion if you're a seller um I think I've always thought this and this is you you need to come to Market with a realistic price okay and what I'm seeing in St Louis that people are having a tough time understanding okay is if your house is $600,000 if your asking price is $600,000 okay and the last comp in your neighborhood was when rates were 5% okay or God forbid even lower like 3% okay the person that buys your house now has to pay more than double on a monthly payment than that person that bought the house at 3% okay it's almost two and a half times now so you need to realize that maybe maybe it's just almost too expensive maybe the type of person that was going to buy your house is gone and so you should be close I mean you should be looking at comps everywhere within that price range because you know we're adding $100,000 so say $600,000 $700,000 you need to look at more houses in that area in that price range to see if you're close to what other people are offering but it's it's this is not like the the title to the video okay are we hitting rock bottom no okay this is not Rock Bottom by any stretch to imagination there's going to be pain on many fronts uh in our industry uh in the lending industry and construction it's not going to be a crash it's just going to be a long drawn out miserable situation and uh and that's that's the way it is if you enjoyed this video it'd be great if you subscribed I again I'm I'm under 200 I'd really love to have 200 subscribers it would it would mean a lot to me um but you know other than that thank you for watching thank you for listening and I'll catch you on the next one