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Welcome to the Deerwood Realty YouTube channel I'm John Schink founder managing Brooker of D realy in St Louis Missouri you know people say hey you should just rent right now you should just rent right things are going good you should just rent and people I talk to I talk to investors and people that say well we're just going to keep buying single family homes because everyone needs a place to live sounds perfect right it sounds perfect just wanted to go over this article I saw off of the core logic website now core logic is a massive real estate data company um they provide kind of the underpinnings of the MLS too it's it's pretty impressive so here you go it says core logic annual us rent growth continues to moderate in August but price squeeze persists and see that's kind of a problem because you know rents have been going crazy it's it's kind of like you would think that if house prices and house affordability was going higher meaning it was more difficult then rents would be lower but it seems like the markets move in tandem which I was surprised to learn that over the past I don't know four or five years I didn't realize it was that way but let's let's let's look at this a little closer it says single family rents have increased by 30% Nationwide since February of 2020 and that's something we've talked about with inflation it's not like people get excited because there's only like 3% inflation for a month but compounded over a year that's ridiculous right so it says although annual us single family rent growth eased again in August renters are still feeling the pinch according to a recent core logic analysis the average American renter household spends about 40% of its income on housing costs with lower income tenants bearing much of the brunt of inflation I mean this is a very powerful statement uh the single family rent index low tier saw the largest year-over-year rental cost gain in August up by 4.2% while the high tier registered a 2.4% annual increase so look if you're putting 40% of your income on your housing cost okay as a renter that doesn't leave a whole lot to save for a down payment for a home I'm just saying and then it says this is fasc I've I've told you that inflation is a tax inflation is a terrible thing if you love Humanity you do not like inflation and of course they say it right in the article uh with lower income tenants bearing much of the brunt of inflation that's why when you see people like Paul Krugman say that the uh inflation's no big deal well he's not low tier right he's got a protected um protected job uh as he works for the regime so you don't have to worry about I mean he doesn't have to worry about it ever right doesn't affect him but the people that are just trying to get by are just getting eaten up by inflation not just in housing but in in you know in food and and transportation and everything it's just it's sad says while the annual single family rent growth has returned to a moderate Pace rent growth has returned to a moderate Pace meaning it's still growing more than three years of substantial increases will have a lasting impact on tenants budgets uh this was a quote by Molly Bosell a principal Economist for core logic single family rents grew by 30% since February of 2020 and small drops in some areas barely put a dent in the overall cumulative increase for example even though rents in the Miami Metro Area have declined by 0.5% since August of 2022 they're still 51% higher than they were before the pandemic

began which is ridiculous right I mean at some point you have to just call it out and say this is ridiculous what is going on is not sustainable there is no way and you can say well John it's a supply and demand argument okay okay fine right and then some people say it's a demographics article and or a demographics argument and that means I don't know I've looked at the demographics and it looks to me like like that's not going to be the case in in the sense that there's going to be a lot of people uh logging off from this planet and uh those houses will be available so I I don't I don't really I don't really go for that so I wanted to get into this part it says of the 20 metros shown in table one St Louis posted the highest year-over-year increase in single family rents in August of 2023 at 7% now I live in St Louis I'm from St Louis and um I have I have my thoughts it says Chicago registered the second highest annual gain at 5.7% followed by Boston and San Diego uh Austin Texas and Las Vegas and Miami again saw slight year-over-year rental cross cost decreases now here's what I think we are in the Midwest and honestly the entire time up until 8% well up until 7% rent uh rates mortgage rates we were just I mean people were buying houses left and right okay and from what I read on the national media like places like Phoenix where there was high amount of I buying that occurred um last year those places actually started to see some drops in sales and things of that nature from what I see on Twitter which is not 100% it looks like there's more and more single family rental listings available in these Metro areas in the Sun Belt where things have had been overheated whereas in St Louis Chicago the Midwest it seems like we've been in a pretty strong space but I expect over time for this to um to be the same situation I I suspect that there's going to be lots of people holding houses trying to rent them and um finding that they need to lower the prices to do so so here's the the first chart it's uh it's great I don't really I'm not a big I'm not a big visual person St Lis Missouri had the heights you over your rent price increased in August of 2023 and then I don't even I can't even understand the definition of single family attached versus detached rental price growth I think a more I think a more adequate chart would be single family versus multif family right but it's not like I'm I'm guessing they mean like a duplex I'm guessing but anyway here we go single family rent change for selected geographical areas St Louis Missouri 7% average rent in St Louis is $1,544 or median Chicago $2,400 Boston 3,150 California 3769 San Diego New York 3,000 or New York New Jersey

3,142 that's a lot that's a lot so um if you're like John how can you uh um can you predict the markets what's going to happen next um no it's going to be slow it's going to be slow it's not like there's not there's this this house crash that everybody thinks is coming um is is not not the way we would normally what we would call a crash it's just going to be month after month of a vicious vicious cycle where prices go down unless unless they change the rate structure right now you changed the rate if you increase affordability you're going to have the housing market take off again which wouldn't be so great for some I don't know it's a very very odd time to be alive in the United States in the real estate World um just anecdotally uh one of my lender friends was telling me the other day that yeah you know lots of offices have closed lots of lend lenders have uh decided that it's not worth it Loos they're called they're just done with the whole industry and they're out um I'm not going anywhere I'm pigheaded I'm um I'm just not this is my life and I'm kind of I'm kind of at peace with it so I I don't go anywhere and I I remember the uh the crisis in 2008 2009 and I know what people had to do to be successful during that time uh basically stay in business keep the doors open if you can do that you're going to be fine and so uh that means don't spend your money during the good times like an idiot and so what do you think the majority of Realtors did the last three

years just saying with that I'm going to head on out look I'm I was told that if I say the word subscribe it shows up along the bottom of the screen and then you click the button and then I get a subscription but I've said subscribe and I get nothing so it' be interesting to see if this video shows the Subscribe now you're only allowed to do it three times during a video so I don't know if I've uh ran a file of those rules regardless I'm going to head on out thank you for watching thank you for listening and have a good day