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welcome to Deerwood Realty YouTube channel I'm John Schink i-n-k for the auto captions from Deerwood Realty in St Louis Missouri managing broker founder General real estate agent fellow well Redfin put out their housing predictions for 2024 Now Redfin is you know. how they do when i'm buying so anyway Let's uh let's look into it and see what they have take with a grain of salt I'll give you my opinion and we'll go from there here it is it says redin predicts 2024 will be the year home buyers catch a break with home prices falling and new listings Rising okay okay fine let's go through it it says prediction number one home prices will fall 1% well that's bold wow 1% prices will fall 1% year-over-year in the second and third quarters when the home selling season is in full swing that will Mark the first time prices of decline since 2012 when the housing market was recovering from the Great Recession with the exception of a brief period in the first half of 2023 well why did it go down then was it the 8% rates H or seven that's a favorable shift for buyers buyers are ending up 2023 up around 3% year-over-year and the typical home buyers monthly payment is only about $150 shy of its all-time high home prices will still be out of reach for many Americans but any break in the affordability crisis is a welcome development nonetheless I mean okay sure prediction number two new listings will take up home prices will fall because Supply will rise more than demand we've recently seen a double- digit ual increase in homeowners contacting redin for help selling their home alongside a small drop in request for prospective buyers wonder why they're seeing a drop with prospective buyers I'm that's we're foreshadowing the video right there listings will climb from 2023 record Lowes the mortgage rate lock and effect eases nearly all mortgaged homeowners will have a rate below the current level many are starting to accept that we won't see rates in the threes or fours anytime soon and they will want to sell before prices fall that's that is highly unlikely that scenario I I doubt there's someone sitting out there right now that says you know what rates aren't going back to 3% so I'm going to go buy a house at 7% and sell my house that's 4% or 3% it's just it's not likely the lack and effect is there now if you have to move for some other reason like say you're growing family divorce something like that but that's not going to change I mean that's the way it's always been sometimes people don't do things for financial reasons that says home sales will the prediction number three home sales will increase and end the year up 5 5% in the first quarter existing home sales will be on Pace for 4.1 million total in 2024 up from an annual pace of 3.85 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 sales will continue Rising throughout the year they'll be on Pace for 4.5 million by the fourth quarter home sales will speed up through the 24 as afford home sales will speed up throughout 2024 as affordability improves and more homes hit the market over all we expect 4.3 million sales in 2024 up 5% year-over-year The crucial difference between 2024 and 2023 will be the sales gaining momentum throughout the year instead of losing momentum so the number of sales total number of sales just fell off a cliff in October right just terrible October November like the number of transactions okay so will those pick up well I mean if you've had a historic low I mean it's like a dead cat bounce right so I really I mean that's not even that bold either and if if home sales speed up as affordability improves and more homes hit the market are we going to go back to the same situation we had the last couple of years because nobody thinks that's a great idea prediction number four mortgage rates will steadily decline but remain above 6% we predict the average 30-year mortgage rate will linger at 7% in the first quarter then decline throughout the year mortgage rates will fall to about 6.6% by the end of 2024 well that's you know like .6 6.7 6.5 I mean that's not really that's not really going out that's pretty conservative the gradual decline in rates combined with the small dip in prices will bring home buyers some much needed relief okay prediction five change will come to the real estate industry this is what red Fin's been wanting for a long time so let's get into it it says as newspapers and real estate portals publish more information about commissions home buyers in 2024 will become even more aware about how much an agent costs and less apologist apologetic about about negotiating commissions this is written from a woman that has never been a real estate agent has no idea what she's talking about but it'll be fun it'll be fun so um and rather than hiring their own agent many home buyers will work directly with the listing agent right and if that does it occur who do you think's going to get ripped off in the transaction the buyer or the seller and says a doj suit could take years to litigate and may never even be filed that brokerag is already scrambling to prare for a future which in which all or most of the fees from a sale earned are by one agent by two let me ask you who's going to benefit if you just have straight listing portals would it be somebody like redin who's probably in the top five for listing portals across the United States do you think they give a damn about the

buyer these changes which Redfin has often fought for of course he did because this is what you want will be good for consumers it's not about consumers it's about red Fin's profitability who will have more choices about which services to pay for and how much to pay so there you go there's your wonderful part about redin and how they're going to change the industry by making it so that you don't have a buyer's agent when you go buy a house right so now you're going to just work for the with the sellers agent and you think the sellers agent is going to care about you I mean I'm not saying you know I'm not saying every case is perfect or anything like that I'm saying in the in the in the middle you think that's a good idea anyway I mean it's it's not like I have a choice it's not like I can go fix this problem right I don't have the big money behind me like redin does um redin or renting will lose its stigma now this this is where it got this is where this is where the the predictions got dark right this this this is where it starts getting dark and this is what I wanted to talk about I just want to check and make sure I got everything in order okay demand for large rental apartments and housing will climb as more young families embrace the renter lifestyle is that a good thing about the United States that we're going to have a nation of renters you will own nothing and like it we're already seeing signs that young people are redefining the American dream nearly one in five Millennials who responded to a 2023 housing survey believe they'll never own a home one in five which isn't that many for some renting is not a choice nearly half of those survey respondents said homes for sale are too expensive and a similar share said they can't afford to save for a down payment but others just prefer renting 12% they say they aren't interested in home ownership and 7% say they don't want to put the effort into maintaining their own home is that a good thing is home ownership now not something that people want and is that a good thing with prices so high buying a home doesn't offer the same Financial upside to Young Millennials and gen zers as it did Baby Boomers and gen xers rather than selling out cash on agent fees because again redfin's a discount brokerage masked is some other sort of weird thing interest on a on a loan property taxes insurance and Main by the way they've never made a profit in 20 years they've been around I mean it's really really sickening to see some company do this just Trot this out all this stuff all the time about how they're going to revolutionize the real estate industry and you you know agents are too expensive yet they have their own agents yet they did I buying and it was a total failure it's just it's just ging to see it and in in real life uh as uh rather than shelling out cash on agent fees interest on loan property taxes insurance and maintenance many will decide that renting and investing their money in other ways makes the most sense again is that a good thing it says um buying a home doesn't offer the same Financial upside to Young Millennials and gen zers as it did Baby Boomers Boomers and gen xers is that true do we have a a crystal ball that can show us the future you know 20 years out for a couple that bought a home a starter home and and see where they end up financially I mean is it true I mean there's a perception and then there's a reality home price and then it says this is as you know I'm I'm kind of an outsider on politics but it says Biden has a housing problem which could hurt his re-election bid let's let's let's look at it a certain way let's frame it a certain way home prices are up more than 20% since since Biden took office that's a problem for his reelection bid is it a problem are more people happy that prices are up I mean our homeowners right now sitting on a ton of equity it's it's just in how you look at it okay those people may be happy that Biden has overseen a 20% increase in home prices I'm just saying a recent PLL that 65% of Voters dis approve of Biden's handling economy with lack of housing affordability likely a major factor that right there is projection we don't know why people don't like the economy all across the board could it be gas prices you know could it be jobs not you know wages not keeping up with inflation I mean it's it's a project and it's okay because understand this article was written okay and then I have a chance to respond to the article the person that wrote the article doesn't get that fair chance so I I mean I don't want you to I'm I'm not trying to pick too much at this person or these people that came together to write it even though the overall economy is strong based on what high housing costs aren't making American are making Americans feel poor that's especially true for young people who don't yet own a home and even though affordability will become less of a problem in 2024 many gen Z and Millennial voters will be playing Financial catchup for a while of that group how many of them vote hisor ially we expect President Biden and his opponents to make a splashy housy policy proposals to try to lure voters who are unhappy with their economic prospects I agree with that one of the things you saw with Biden is he's going to do these tax credits for commercial building Transformations near mass transit which to me doesn't resonate at all but maybe it resonates to somebody that really finds mass transit enjoyable Democrats are likely to focus or yeah Democrats are likely to focus on subsidizing down payments for firsttime home buyers promoting inclusionary zoning and funding housing vou vouchers which are all popular with liberal voters I don't know I I don't know Republicans are more likely to focus on reducing regulations that limit development I don't know that that's true I don't I it's it's all one party in Washington anymore it's not it's not two parties it's it's absolutely the elites versus the rest of the the people in the in the United States they have their own thoughts they it's not Republican and Democrat anymore it says uh then there's some some more now these were like you know kind of throwing stuff out there and just and talking about it so it says prices are likely to rise in affordable metros that are more climate resilient than a place like Coastal Florida such as Albany New York Rochester New York and Grand Rapids Michigan if you ever been in a in a in in a winter in Grand Rapids Michigan and you're honestly going tell me that you'd rather live there than Coastal Florida because of climate resiliency says people will decide to live based on in-office policies climate risk and affordability concerns many priced out Young Americans will move in with their Boomer parents often times along with Children of their own creating more three generation households is that a good thing is that a good thing I don't think it's a good thing I've in fact I never thought multigenerational house housing and how that was pushed was a good thing in the United States because what it was doing and what it's saying is is that you can't afford a home on your own you need generations of a family to be able to afford to live in one that to me isn't that's not Prosperity that's not that's not the America that I thought we had which I know we don't anymore local governments will focus on housing affordability like presidential candidates congressional candidates will focus on housing affordability they will introduce policies similar to those in cities and states that have made progress like Minneapolis Oregon and California which are among the places have ended most single family only zoning California was one of the places where more people left in the last couple years than anywhere else that's success you can't build in California that's a success and then it says the US government will encourage cities and states to build more housing for instance they may take a more active role in financing new construction now if you look at the stock market okay and look at the home builders look at how much they make every year okay on average and then tell me that the then tell me that the federal government needs to get involved with this it's absolute sham okay when house prices are going up when things are good home builders do well when the economy does bad home builders do badly okay the US government doesn't need to get involved at all okay if they would stop screwing around with monetary policy I think we'd have even better chance of having affordable homes for everyone because remember the affordable homes question is based on inflation the inflation is what's killed home prices I mean that's why they're high add to that ridiculous attempts by the FED to um to cool this thing down when it should have been that situation in the first place we knew we knew that inflation wasn't transitory okay as soon as they said that that was the that was the call so I don't know what do you think are you out there are you going to buy a house this year I don't know I I just I just find the red fin the red finin way is is great okay they they're the only company that figures out that you have to Market yourself so they write all these wonderful articles that we discuss but at the end of the day they're out for themselves and it's shown in in what they write right but you just have to kind of look and see how it's [Music] done I don't know I uh I I'd be interested what you think obviously if you're not a real estate agent you're probably going to have anybody that tells you that things are going to be cheaper and more wonderful in the in the commission space you're going to go for and I and I certainly understand that um I I totally get it I and you know so I I suspect that some of you will have opinions that are different than mine about these things put them in the comment section want to see what you have to say I I'm on my I'm not moving from my position but I mean you can express um your deference to my to my thoughts um so do I think that uh do I think that like I said I think that house I think the number of transactions has to go up because it's been so bad I think a 1% increase in sale in price over the years isn't enough to get excited about and I think that mortgages in the sixes probably aren't going to Spur a tremendous amount of movement but what do I know right I'm just a real estate agent in St Louis Missouri hope you enjoyed the show hope I didn't come across as too angry thank you for watching thank you for listening and I'll catch you on the next one